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FUTURE of AFGHANISTAN - I


The first victim of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is Afghanistan. It seems that the NATO and Western countries learned or guessed about the possible conflict between Ukraine and Russia well before it started in February 2022. Therefore, the NATO/USA/UK decreased their military presence sharply in Afghanistan. The initial idea was to set up peace between the Taliban and Afghan Government and share Afghanistan's governance. However, the negotiations ended up capturing of entire Afghanistan by the Taliban. But, this was not a concern by the NATO/UK/USA, because their only concern was positioning themself against Russia. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is a topic for another article. But I can say that it was like the story in the book called “ Red Monday” written by Gabriel Garcia. Everybody knew that it would happen but no one took any step to avoid it.

The Western Countries expected that the Taliban would take the needed steps so that the world would recognize the Taliban regime. But, the Taliban didnt do. The radical Muslim groups within the Taliban (especially the Haqqani Group) didnt agree about women's rights. As a result, the Taliban banned education for girls and working for women. In addition to this Taliban started to target the killing of journalists, Afghan arm members, former governors and etc. Also, some of the Taliban members are involved in raping of women.

A few days ago, the Governor of Balk Province was killed in a suicede attack. The ISIS group declared that they did it. The tension between ISIS and the Taliban has been increasing for a while. There were fighting between the groups but this is the first time a provincial governor is killed. Right after that eight former soldiers were killed in Balk by the Taliban. It is very interesting that this assassination was done in a Northern Province of Afghanistan. It was well-known that the Taliban has been increasing the level of its forces in Northern Afghanistan. It is also known that the Taliban is aiming to extend its influence an physical presence to Central Asia. Day by day the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is becoming a serious threat for the stability in the Central Asia region.

Assassinations, target killing and rape cases became a daily routine in Afghanistan. The Taliban came to power to bring peace to Afghanistan. But, it is getting very clear that the Taliban is losing its control. Furthermore, drug production and trade have continued to increase in Afghanistan after the Taliban took power in the country. Though, the Taliban regime started eradicating activities in some provinces in Afghanistan. But the level of eradication is very limited and may not cause any reduction in opium poppy cultivation. However, the drought might cause a serious problem for many farmers in Afghanistan in 2023.

The Taliban regime does not have enough financial resources to run the country. There are millions of people living below the poverty line. The hunger problem is becoming a serious threat for the people of Afghanistan. Those who find a way to leave the country move to Pakistan, Iran, Turkiye or other countries. But, the world is too busy with the situation in Ukraine. Therefore, unless the conflict ends in Ukraine, the world will not pay attention to the Human rights violations in Afghanistan. In other words, Afghan women and girls will not be able to work or continue their education for an unknown time.

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