Year 2002, when NATO arrived Afghanistan, vast majority of the Afghan people were with full of hopes about the future. After a long years of war, new Afghanistan was born. Internationals and nationals, together, hand in hand, started to build a new country in 2002.
There was Afghan Army, no police, no governmental structure , no infrastructure and people were poor. But Afghans were still smiling, still sharing their last piece of bread with their visitors. They were so welcoming all the international from all around the world.
But, there was one problem which was a major threat for the future of Afghanistan. Most of the international community didn’t pay much attention on it. NATO didn’t want to even talk about it. A lot of people closed their eyes because it was a kind of income generation for some farmers in Afghanistan. This problem was not a major concern for the new Afghan Government because their main concern was creating income for the people and re-building the country.
As of today, this problem is still one of the least concerned issue for the current Afghan Government as well, although it is the main reason for insecurity and corruption in the country. The name of the problem is “ Opium Poppy ‘. It is not only causing the lives of its users in and outside of Afghanistan, but it is also causing instability in Afghanistan. It is the root of the problems for insecurity, lack of governance and rule of law and instability.
Now, most of Afghans are planning to move out from the country. The ones who has opportunity, they are living the country. No one can blame them, as they want a future for their family.
Between 2002 and 2005, most of international actors, especially NATO didn’t believe that drugs are linked with terrorism. It was obvious that Taliban and other illegally armed groups were benefitting from Afghan opium trade. During this period, they earned enough money to re-group and re-organize their activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan. After 2005, security started to get worsen in Afghanistan, as the drug trade increased. Only in 2008, NATO accepted that drug trafficking is linked with terrorism. But it was too late. Drug cultivation and production became an epidemic problem in the country.
Year 2012, new Afghan Government was only 10 years old. It was suffering from creating development of an efficient Government structure ,establishing rule of law and providing basic government services for its people. It didn’t have any capacity to fight with terrorism and drug traffickers. But, international community and NATO announced the withdrawal of the international forces from the country. This was a crucial mistake. A ten year old child was left alone in the jungle which was full of wild animals. There was not much people who were against the withdraw of NATO from Afghanistan. I was against. But who was I ? Only a mid-level UN staff. None of the head of the UN bodies didn’t react it. On that year, I was invited to a conference in Berlin by the German Government. I openly told the audience that they are living a ten year old child alone with criminals and terrorist.
Year 2017, we can say that Afghanistan is a failed and now a narco-state. After NATO and international donors left the country, criminals, criminal minded people and terrorist surrounded the young Afghan Government. As a result, corruption became epidemic, government failed to bring stability to the country and security became worse than even before 2002.
Country is paying the cost of closing eyes on drug trafficking between 2002 and 2005. Not only Afghanistan but Pakistan is also paying the cost for closing the eyes for terrorist groups and drug trafficking in Pakistan. But the damage on Afghanistan is clearer. Somehow, terrorist groups in Pakistan does not touch much on Pakistan as long as Pakistan army organizes operations. So, the entire focus of the terrorist groups is Afghanistan. These groups totally linked with the drug cartels as well. They move hand in hand, and capture the country day by day.
As of today, at least 10 percent of the country is ruled by Terrorist Groups. Opium Poppy is widely cultivated in the areas under their control. Furthermore, opium poppy is cultivated in at least 50% of the districts in the country. At least 10% of the irrigated agricultural land of Afghanistan is used for opium poppy cultivation.
Terrorist groups collect tax and apply Sharia law where they control. So, mainly, there are two governments in the country. Soon, terrorist groups will control more money and by this way, they can attract more fighters. As a result, it is very likely that they can extend their areas of control soon.
Can it be worse ? Yes, it can be. Entire country can be captured by terrorist groups. Drug trafficking and terrorism is fully feeding each other. And they managed to put the young Afghan Government into emergency room.
It is now call for international world, either you let young Afghan government to die in the emergency room, or you give your hands full to save it. It is time to re-shuffle the cards and re-start to build the country. It will be harder than it was in 2002. But, there is no other chance, unless if you want Afghanistan to continue to produce terrorists and drugs for the world.
It is now to make radical decisions. Drug trade reached to a level which cant be solved by only alternative development or law enforcement. First and most important thing is to start from the Government. It is essential that Afghan president agrees that drug trade and terrorism are linked and they are number one priority for Afghanistan. Once it is done, then both strong law enforcement rules should be applied together with rural development.
Between 2005 and 2008, the opium poppy free provinces strategy helped to a certain extend. Now, it is time to re-start it but at district and even at village level. The districts or villages where there is no opium poppy cultivation, international community should provide funding to establish basic government services like schools, hospitals and irrigation facilities. This is not as costly as to fight against terrorism in Syria.
Furthermore, It is important that Afghan Government should start making feasibility analysis of legalization of opium poppy cultivation and development of pharmaceutical sector in the country. Because it is a fact that there is not enough morphine available in the world. Therefore, there is an illegal morphine black market which is in hands of criminals.
Given that drugs money is feeding Taliban and other terrorist groups, it is important to cut their income generated by the Afghan opium poppy. All the actions has to be designed around this strategy. Otherwise, it is impossible to stop terrorism in Afghanistan.
If Pakistan Government is not able to control and clean the terrorist groups based in FATA and Baluchistan regions, then Afghan Army and NATO together should start operations. Otherwise, as long as these regions are under control of terrorist groups, then there is no way bringing peace to Afghanistan. This is the same logic international forces and NATO organized operations in Afghanistan to save Europe and USA from terrorist groups. Or like now, Turkey is organizing operations in Syria to protect its country from terrorist groups. So, Afghanistan and International forces have this right to organize operations within Pakistan as well.
But, if international community does not want to make any change or any step to save Afghanistan, then they should be ready for new humanitarian crises and migration flows out from Afghanistan. The size of Afghan humanitarian crises will be even larger than Syria Crises.
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