My blog readers may remember that I several times mentioned that Syria will be divided into at least two countries. It is getting more clear that this is becoming a fact rather than a hypothesis.
A new Kurdish semi-autonomous region is being established in Northern Syria with the support of the USA. The scenario happened in Iraq as well. Kurds had their own autonomous region which will be an independent country in a few years in Iraq with support of the USA and EU as well.
Yellow highlighted areas in the below map present the region controlled by Kurdish Forces which is called Syrian Democratic Forces. Of course, when you can a force as a democratic, one may assume that this military force includes all Syrian ethnic groups. But it only includes Kurdish ones and fights to secure an autonomous region for Kurds in Syria. So, SDF is a separation force in Syria.
Indeed, the leader of the SDF Mazlum Kobane has openly stated his goal of establishing a semi-autonomous state within a federal Syria. The Assad government has consistently rejected that proposition and insisted on the restoration of full sovereignty. The SDF now control a large portion of the country’s oil and natural gas reserves which is a strong bargaining chip but also makes them a target. The SDF also controls the Tabqa Dam, the largest source of electricity in Syria which recently got repaired & reconnected to the national grid.
The EU does not have a specific policy with countries like the UK, France and Germany remaining wedded to the U.N.-led Geneva process while others likely Italy, Poland, and Hungary — largely driven by nationalist domestic agendas — want Europe to re-engage with Assad in order to start sending refugees back to Syria.
Will the Assad regime lets its country be divided? As of now, the Assad regime does not have any power or resources to open another large scale war while being very busy in Idlib and financial problems. At the same time, Kurdish forces also are not intended to have a fight with the Assad regime. Overall, it looks that both sides is in a kind of undeclared agreement
One another important player, Turkey s is concerned about the establishment of a Kurdish autonomous region in Northern Syria. But it is not very clear how Turkey will avoid it given that the country has serious disagreements with the USA, Kurds (in and outside of Turkey) and the Syrian regime. The only friend of Turkey is Russia among the key players in Syria. But, Russia will not be included in resolving of the issues between Kurdish forces, Turkey and the Syrian regime.
Overall, as of today, it seems the Assad regime will not be able to secure the unity of Syria unless a miracle happens. Actually, if Turkey shakes hands with the Syrian regime and agrees about the unity of Syria, then they may jointly suppress the Kurdish Forces. It is more logical if Turkey and Syria get closer given that these two countries have a strong historical friendship. In addition to this, it is estimated that there are around 5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey. There has been tension between Syrian refugees and Turkish host communities for a while. In line with this, the Turkish government has started to change it policies about Syrian refugees as well. Such as, Turkey is not allowing more refugees to flows into Turkey anymore. Also, the Turkish Government calls Syrians to go back to their country.
However, at the same time, there are around 2 million Syrian civilians are squeezed between Syrian Regime forces and Jihadist terrorist groups in Idlib. The Syrian regime will not let these jihadist groups to be based on its territory. As a result, the Syrian regime started a large scale offense against these groups recently as well. As a result, there are more than 100 thousand Syrians escaped to the Turkey border area. But, they are not allowed to get into Turkey.
It is a clear advantage of both Turkey and Syria if both countries start talking and finding common solutions about the status of Northern Syria, the status of the refugees and the re-establishment of Governance in Syria. Turkey has a strong capacity to help Syria to re-establish the country together with Russia, the EU, and the UN.
I will continue to monitor the situation in Syria. We only hope that no further humanitarian crises will happen in Syria in the near future.
Comments