UNODC relased the Afghanistan Opium Poppy Survey for 2022. According to the UNODC, the cultivation has increased by 32% and reached to 233,000 hectares in 2022. However, the opium production decreased by 10% and amounted to 6200 tons!
Below are my observations about the UNODC 2022 Afghanistan Opium Poppy Survey Report;
1- 94% of the total cultivation is in 10 provinces. The remaining (13,700) amount of opium poppy cultivation is in 13 provinces. There is no opium poppy in 11 provinces. 52% of the cultivation is in Helmand Province.
The report does not include a detailed methodology or location of the selected samples of the high-resolution satellite images. However, if UNODC used the same sample locations used in the 2021 survey, then this brings serious concerns about the reliability of the estimation. Because the sample distribution used in 2021 does not include Takhar, Ghazni, Hirat, Baghşan, Samangan, Khost, Paktika, etc. The UNODC satellite imagery survey does not include 16 provinces (out of 34). Therefore, it is not clear how UNODC did the estimations for provinces like Takhar, Hirat, and etc.
Furthermore, the UNODC satellite imagery coverage does not include all parts of some of the provinces, like Badakshan, Faryab, Saripul, etc. The UNODC samples are more concentrated in irrigated parts of these provinces.
Also, There is opium poppy cultivation in Takhar, Khost, Ghazni, which were announced as poppy free in UNODC report.
Therefore, it is very likely that the UNODC 2022 estimation includes serious bias and is underestimated as it is.
2- The reports indicate that opium yield decreased from 38.5 kg/ha in 2021 to 26.7 kg/ha in 2022. Although it is not mentioned in the report, the UNODC was not able to conduct any ground data collection in Afghanistan in 2022. Therefore, it is not clear how the UNODC calculated or estimated the yield. Furthermore, according to my sources, the yield was not bad in many provinces in Afghanistan in 2022.
3- The report suggests that 350–380 tons of heroin will be produced in Afghanistan in 2022. But this estimation is based on old heroin consumption data. According to the UNODC World Drug Report, there are around 10 million heroin users in India. This translates into the fact that the total heroin consumption in India alone is around 200 tons (in Afghan purity, around 70%). Unless the opium poppy is not cultivated in India (illegally), then the heroin should be trafficked from Afghanistan to India via Pakistan. If so, the total amount of heroin exported from Afghanistan will be not less than 600 tons in 2022.
4- The incorrect calculation of the amount of heroin production in Afghanistan also causes a wrong estimation of the total export value of heroin out of Afghanistan. Though UNODC didn't calculate the export value of Afghan heroin in 2022 (it was provided in previous reports), According to my calculation, the total export value of Afghan heroin was around USD 1.8 billion in Afghanistan. This amount of money went to the Afghan traffickers in Afghanistan.
5- The miscalculation of the total opium production causes an underestimation of the income for Afghan opium farmers as well.
6- Interestingly, the UNODC accepted that the purity of the heroin produced in Afghanistan is between 55 and 70 percent. However, in previous reports, the UNODC reported 100% purity. In line with this, the opium-herion conversion rate was announced at 10 to 1 in the previous reports. But the reality is 7 to 1 (as in the UNODC reports reported between 2002 and 2009). Therefore, the UNODC should correct its figures released between 2010 and 2022 accordingly.
7- Overall, the UNODC 2022 Afghanistan Opium Poppy Survey report is much weaker compared to the previous years. The UNODC spent around USD 2 million (funded mainly by USA) for this report. Given the amount spent, the quality of the report is questionable. The yield estimation is not based on any ground data collection. The satellite imagery coverage does not include some important provinces. Furthermore, the UNODC assumes that there is no opium poppy cultivation in the provinces not covered by the satellite imagery. Also, it is a fact that there is no need to spend such an amount of money on opium poppy cultivation estimates in Afghanistan. Furthermore, instead of making a sample approach, it is possible to map all the opium poppy cultivation areas in all provinces of Afghanistan by using cost-free satellite imagery.
8- Lastly, the UNODC preferred to make the estimations on the conservative side. In addition to this, there is no mention of organized crime or terrorist groups benefitting from the Afghan opiate trade. There is no single criticism of the Taliban government's policies for countering narcotics in Afghanistan. As such, it is a fact that the Taliban government does not apply any counternarcotics measures in Afghanistan. It is almost free to cultivate and traffic illicit drugs. Also, the UNODC avoided making any estimation about the size of the opiate economy in Afghanistan in 2022. I can understand that the UNODC does not want to upset the Taliban government as much as they want to work with them. But the UN organizations should report the reality. The report does not include any important analysis about the linkages of the Taliban, Haqqani, and ISIS groups in Afghanistan in 2022. But it is a clear fact that all these organizations benefit from the drug trade in Afghanistan. Indeed, the main sources of income for the Taliban government are drugs, illegal trade, and international funding (some countries still fund the Taliban).
Comments